A method of processing expert data for constructing empirical mathematical models of complex systems operating in unstable environments

Objective. The objective of the study is to develop a method for constructing a mathematical model of construction production based on processing expert data using tools of the mathematical apparatus of fuzzy sets such as linguistic variables and linguistic functions. Method. The data are processed using regression analysis, resulting in an analytical expression of the linguistic function graph, which is actually an analytical expression establishing the dependence of the performance indicator under consideration on the factors of the unstable economic environment of complex systems (construction organization) that influence it. Result . Analytical dependencies of the graphs of linguistic functions corresponding to various performance indicators are constructed, used as criteria for optimal decision-making. The greatest effect can be achieved by setting and solving various problems of multi-criteria Pareto optimization, using analytical expressions of several performance indicators of construction production as optimality criteria. Conclusion . Constructing empirical expressions of performance indicators of the systems under study allows organizing optimal management decisions on their basis and ensuring the effective functioning of complex management objects in unstable environmental conditions. Further development of the research is associated with the development of a method for optimal control of the behavior of various systems operating in spontaneously changing environmental conditions based on solving problems of multi-criteria optimization and developing optimal chains of organizational and management measures.