Assessing future risk of humanitarian crises using projections of climate-related hazards, population, conflict and other socioeconomic variables within the INFORM framework

This study uses the INFORM Climate Change model to estimate the impacts of climate change on humanitarian crises and disasters globally. It is based on risk concept and composite indicator methodology: using indicators to measure hazards and people’s exposure to them, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity. It incorporates projections of climate-related hazards, population and conflict into the risk model to analyze future risk. A key novelty of this research lies in its inclusion of the future projections of vulnerability and coping capacity drivers under various Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Our analysis reveals that global risk of humanitarian crises is projected to decrease by mid-twenty-first century under moderate and rapid development scenarios. The “high emission—fragmented world (SSP3)” scenario stands out with significant increases in exposure to floods, droughts, epidemics, and conflict. In this scenario, reduced vulnerability and coping capacity will not offset the increased hazards, resulting in over a 50% increase in the number of people living in high-risk countries. Our findings aim to support prioritizing regions and communities most vulnerable to climate change impacts. This will enable targeted resource allocation for risk reduction and adaptation interventions, preventing increased risks and further setbacks in development.