The specter of general economic stagnation: myth or reality?

The article evaluates the prospects for economic growth in the Russian economy in 2025. The authors proceed from the fact that theoretical and methodological approaches to the study of market conditions have undergone significant evolution over several centuries and today are united by the recognition of both the wave-like nature of periods of economic activity and the need for scrupulous adjustment of macroeconomic policy depending on the emerging trend and the specific phase of the cycle. The purpose of the article is to analyze the current economic situation and verify the forecast regarding the upward or downward trend in the development of the Russian economy in 2025. At the same time, the authors compare the forecast indicators of the dynamics of the GDP of the Russian Federation, given at the end of 2024, and their correction based on the actual results of the functioning of the domestic economy in the first quarter of this year. The study assessed the cautiously optimistic mood at the beginning of 2025. The provision on the existence of grounds for such opinions was substantiated. An analysis of the economic development of the Russian economy in the first quarter of 2025 led to the conclusion that problems have arisen related to the exhaustion of the model that has been characteristic of recent years and which combined the rapid growth of the military-industrial complex and the receipt of oil and gas export revenues in affordable markets that have managed to withstand sanctions pressure. Further investigation led to the understanding that the forecast characteristics regarding the dynamics of GDP need to be adjusted downward. This allowed us to formulate the conclusion that in today’s dispute between researchers who tend to predict a stagnant scenario of the Russian economy and those who are more optimistic, the arguments of the former look more convincing. In practical terms, this conclusion, reached by the authors, puts macroeconomic policy in a situation of difficult choice.