The Role of Spatial Variability in Developing Cycling Cities: Implications Drawn from Geographically Weighted Regressions

As cities grow, they increase in complexity, requiring the effective use of land resources. Cycling is generally regarded as an alternative transport mode to support the development of the cities of tomorrow. In response to urbanization, in many cities worldwide, a common concern associated with investing in cycling networks is the resulting use after such investment. This study uses a continuous longitudinal dataset of daily cycling counts from January 2018 to June 2024 to assess bicycle volumes across three of New Zealand’s largest cities. The results reveal that the relationship between distance and cycle count is not uniform across space, with some areas showing a negative effect between distance and cycling, and others showing a positive one. A global OLS model hides these complexities, as shown in the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model. The coefficients for distance (−0.49) and precipitation (−95.23) in the global OLS are higher, and do not reveal the non-uniformity between cities, wheras themultiple GWR coefficients for distance range between −0.57 and −0.47 and precipitation between −33.47 and −97.63. The results reveal that cycling volume demonstrates lower sensitivity to changes in distance compared to variations in weather conditions. At the city level, there are notable intercity differences in sensitivity. The variability in the coefficients across locations suggests that, although distance and precipitation have general effects, local factors, such as infrastructure quality, topography, weather adaptation measures, and cultural attitudes toward cycling, play a critical role in modulating these relationships. The findings highlight the complexity of spatial interactions and emphasize the need for localized interventions when planning cycling networks.