Reevaluating tourism econometrics: insights of gravity models from small island destinations

Purpose This study investigates the effectiveness of gravity models in predicting tourist arrivals in small island destinations. The purpose of this study is to determine the applicability of gravity models to the case of small island destinations. The reasoning beyond this goal can be justified because these models were not designed to be used to predict tourist arrivals and due to the particularities of small island destinations. Design/methodology/approach Using linear regression analysis, the author examined the significance of two key gravity model variables: economic size and distance, across 33 small islands. Findings The results revealed that neither economic size nor distance were significant predictors of tourist arrivals on small islands. These findings underscore the unique challenges faced by small island destinations, which often defy the conventional assumptions of gravity models. Research limitations/implications This study has important implications for destination management, suggesting that alternative models and research methodologies should be explored to better capture the drivers of tourism in small island destinations. Originality/value While past studies have used gravity models to predict tourists’ arrivals to urban destinations or countries, their usage in the case of small island destinations has been limited. The particularities of small islands highlight the need for tailored tourism strategies. Due to these particularities, it is crucial to test the applicability of econometric tools and their results, which has been neglected in previous literature.