Exploring the nexus between climatic factors and malaria risks in the Nigerian Sahel

Malaria is still a major public health concern, particularly in the Sahelian regions of the world, despite global efforts to eradicate it. As such, this study investigated the connection between climatic factors and malaria cases. To empirically support these relationships, the study primarily examined the effects of temperature and rainfall on the incidence of malaria. The study used time-series data of temperature, precipitation and malaria incidence from 2014 to 2023. The study employed trend analysis to examine temporal change, correlation analysis to quantify the relationship between variables, and regression modeling to determine the predictive impact of climatic variables on malaria incidence. The findings show distinct seasonal and inter-annual cycles in the incidence of malaria, with peaks in 2017, 2020, and 2023. A significant positive correlation was found between malaria incidence and temperature (r = 0.97) and an inverse correlation between malaria incidence and rainfall (r = -0.89). Results from regression analysis further indicated that rising temperatures increase malaria incidence, while high rainfall reduces transmission. The paper concluded that the incidence of malaria is greatly influenced by climatic variables. Thus, it recommends integration of climate into malaria surveillance, to strengthen climate-resilient malaria control efforts.