The effect of exchange rate and other macroeconomic indicators on Nigeria’s non-oil exports performance

Nigeria’s non-oil exports have remained suboptimal despite various policy efforts to promote export diversification. One of the critical challenges lies in the volatility of exchange rates and the impact of macroeconomic variables, which continue to hinder the competitiveness of non-oil exports in global markets (Nnoli et al. 2023; Nweke et al. 2020). Given the strategic importance of non-oil exports to Nigeria’s economic growth and diversification agenda, it becomes imperative to investigate the underlying factors affecting export performance. The research explores the effect of exchange rates, fuel prices and other macroeconomic indicators on Nigeria’s non-oil export performance. The study utilises annual data from World Bank Development Indicators and Nigeria’s Central Bank Statistical Bulletin (1989–2022) and employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to analyse short- and long-run relationships, complemented by the Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Least Squares (DOLS), Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR) methods to ensure robustness of the estimates with Granger Causality Tests. The estimations revealed that the exchange rate significantly influences non-oil exports, with depreciation enhancing export performance. GDP and trade openness also contribute positively to non-oil exports, whereas interest rates and fuel prices have adverse effects. However, credit to the private sector shows a statistically insignificant influence. Based on these findings, the research recommends policies to stabilise exchange rates, improve export competitiveness, and encourage investment in research and development to upgrade non-oil exports from primary to high-value secondary goods.