Temporal and spatial persistence of tuberculosis cases in Brazilian municipalities between 2001 and 2022

Abstract The objective was to analyze the association between socioeconomic variables and the temporal and spatial persistence of TB rates reported in Brazilian municipalities between the years 2001 and 2022. An ecological study of time series and spatial analysis was conducted using secondary data from public sources. Spatial correlation was sought between TB rates and socioeconomic variables in Brazilian municipalities and their direct and indirect effects on these rates. Global and Local Moran’s Indices, both univariate and bivariate, as well as the Durbin spatial error model, were used. The results show that an increase in per capita GDP and health expenditure impacts the reduction of TB cases. Additionally, there is a direct correlation between TB rates and demographic density and the rate of healthcare professionals. It was concluded that, despite its multifactorial nature, poverty is a strong determinant in the increase of TB rates. The reduction of TB cases in Brazilian municipalities depends on public health policies and intersectoral actions that are targeted to each geographical area based on its specific characteristics.