Human-Induced Shifts in Yellow River Flooding: Population Threshold Effects in the Loess Plateau’s Primary Sediment Source Area (934 CE)

Flooding frequency in the lower Yellow River (YR) exhibited an abrupt increase post-934 CE, causing catastrophic societal disruptions. However, the quantitative relationship between this abrupt increase and the intensification of human activity in the midstream Loess Plateau (LP)’s Primary Sediment Source Area (PSSA) remains uncertain. This study systematically evaluates the threshold effects of human activities on YR flooding through multi-proxy historical records, GIS-based spatial analysis, and nonparametric statistical tests. The results show that from 934 to 1102 CE, the population density in the PSSA surged from 1.3 to 19.8 persons/km2 (a 14.2-fold increase, p = 0.005). A 2400-year-scale comparison using 934 CE as the breakpoint revealed that the mean population density in this region increased from 5.2 to 51 persons/km2 (a 9.8-fold increase). This dramatic population surge drove a 1.4-fold increase in the cultivation rate (from 8.6% to 20.5%), leading to a 5.4-fold rise in sediment yield (1.6 × 108 → 1.02 × 109 t/yr, p = 0.035), a 10-fold acceleration in downstream sedimentation rate (0.3 → 3.3 cm/yr, p = 0.001), and ultimately a 5.5-fold escalation in flooding frequency (from 1.6 to 10.4 events per 20 years, p < 0.0001). The study identifies 19.8 persons/km2 as the ecological pressure threshold. It proposes converting population density to ecological pressure equivalents adjusted for soil–water conservation coverage (e.g., terracing/afforestation). When the equivalent ecological pressure exceeds 19.8 persons/km2, pre-defined sediment control measures (e.g., tillage restrictions/afforestation mandates) should be enforced in the PSSA.