Wild pigs (Sus scrofa) population management in Brazil: economic, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions impacts

Abstract This study systematically assesses the impact of wild pig population control on avoidable crop losses in Brazil, along with its economic and environmental implications. By utilizing the TERM-BR15 Computable General Equilibrium model, we conducted simulations for the period from 2023 to 2030. We developed three scenarios that focus on increased yields of corn, soybeans, and sugarcane while varying the intensity of avoidable damage caused by wild pigs through adjustments to parameters such as pig harvest rates and average daily crop intake. The intermediate scenario forecasts a 0.15% increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a 0.17% rise in real household consumption compared to the baseline of 2030, resulting from effective wild pig population management. This equates to an increase of approximately US$203.18 in GDP and US$151.49 in household consumption for each wild pig managed (based on a BRL to US$ exchange rate of 5). The national output for corn, soybeans, and sugarcane is expected to rise, accompanied by reductions in greenhouse gas emissions intensity and deforestation. Although real GDP is expected to increase across all Brazilian regions, areas not impacted by wild pigs may see a decline in grain production. Our findings offer an evidence-based estimate of the economic and environmental impacts of wild pig crop damage, providing valuable insights for the formulation of public policies aimed at addressing this challenge.