Shifting trends in obesity growth rates in Brazilian adults between 2006 and 2021

Abstract The aim of this article is to analyze and quantify changes in acceleration and/or deceleration in temporal trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in adults in Brazilian capitals and the Federal District between 2006 and 2021. Using data from Risk and Protective Factors Surveillance System for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Interviews (Vigitel), joinpoint regression analyses were performed to identify potential inflection points in trends and to estimate the annual percentage change (VPA) of overweight and obesity prevalence. Obesity prevalence increased from 11.9% in 2006 to 22.4% in 2021, and that of overweight from 37.3% in 2006 to 58.8% in 2021. The increase in obesity suggests an annual growth rate of 5.8% (95%CI 4.7; 7.0) in the period from 2006 to 2012, and after that, a slower annual rate of 2.7% (95%CI 2.1; 3.3) between 2012 and 2021. The same trend pattern occurs for overweight prevalence, which grew by 2.9% (95%CI 2.7; 3.2) from 2006 to 2013, and by 1.3% (95%CI 1.1; 1.5) from 2013 to 2021. Reductions in the growth rates were more intense for women with less than 8 years of schooling. The results indicate a likely deceleration in the growth rates of the prevalence of overweight and obesity from 2012/2013 among Brazilian adults.