Quantifying climate variability impacts on maize and wheat yield dynamics in Hulbarag district, Silte zone, Ethiopia: a panel data modelling approach

Ethiopia’s agriculture-dependent economy is increasingly challenged by climate variability, which poses significant risks to food security. Maize and wheat, vital staple crops, are highly sensitive to changes in temperature, rainfall patterns, and extreme weather events, impacting yields and rural livelihoods. This study explores the impact of climate variability on maize and wheat yields in Hulbarag district of the Silte Zone Ethiopia, utilizing panel data modelling to analyze spatial and temporal dynamics. The result revealed that the study area exhibits high to very high rainfall variability in summer (32.6%) and spring (42.7%) seasons in the midland, and moderate rainfall variability (26.7% and 23.3%) in the respective growing seasons in the lowland agroecology. The result of the random effect model indicates that rainfall revealed a significant positive impact on both maize and wheat yield but maximum temperature showed a significant adverse impact on maize harvest. Thus, farmers who grow wheat and maize should improve their capacity for adaptation by adjusting crop calendars to correspond with evolving climate projections, enhancing the adaptation of early-maturing crops and rainwater harvesting techniques, and endorsing small-scale irrigation schemes.