Identification of potential areas for reforestation applying the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), case study from the valley of Aguascalientes, Mexico

To promote urban sustainability and resilience amid environmental degradation, it is crucial to preserve and expand urban and peri-urban forests. These green infrastructures play a key role in mitigating climate impacts, enhancing biodiversity, and improving environmental quality. This study aims to identify and prioritize suitable areas for reforestation in the Aguascalientes Valley, Mexico, using a multicriteria decision-making approach that integrates environmental and spatial variables within a GIS-based framework. The objective is to support strategic ecological restoration through a replicable, data-driven methodology. Focusing on the semi-arid metropolitan region of the Aguascalientes Valley–characterized by urban expansion and increasing pressure on natural resources–the study applies the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) within a spatially explicit framework. Five geospatial variables were selected for their relevance to reforestation: land use, precipitation, natural drainage network, topography, and geological faults. Each variable was hierarchically weighted using AHP based on its relative influence on reforestation success. GIS tools were employed to integrate these variables into a composite suitability map through raster-based analysis. Results show that areas with the highest potential for reforestation are primarily in the northeastern, southeastern, and northwestern parts of the valley, where vegetation is sparse, urban development is limited, and favorable hydrological and topographical conditions exist. These zones also align with regional conservation and development plans. By combining geospatial analysis with structured decision-making, this study provides a valuable model for informed land use planning. The resulting maps and methodology offer strategic tools for policymakers to guide ecological restoration and promote sustainable resource management.