Transportation in net-zero emissions futures: Insights from the EMF-37 model intercomparison study
Transportation is currently the largest source of U.S. anthropogenic CO<sub>2</sub> emissions, at about a third of the total. Achieving net-zero emissions by mid-century will require substantial reductions in transportation across passenger and freight travel. Here we leverage a model intercomparison study to explore the role of transportation in scenarios achieving net-zero economy-wide CO<sub>2</sub> emissions by 2050. We find the U.S. transport sector is poised to play the most significant role in reducing demand-side emissions, mostly driven by technology substitution, as modeling results suggest a limited role for mode shifting and for reduced use of personal car travel. Among various technology solutions, models show agreement that passenger on-road vehicles will largely transition to electric vehicles (EVs), while solutions to decarbonize heavier travel modes are more diverse and include greater use of liquid biofuels and hydrogen. Research should continue to investigate the evolution of on-road electrification, the role of biofuels and hydrogen across heavier travel modes, and the role of mode shift and travel behavior change to support personal transportation decarbonization at national and regional scales to temper the rapid growth in clean fuel and electricity demand.
Authors
- Geoffrey J. Blanford (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8765-9059)
- Yongxia Cai (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1954-269X)
- David McCollum (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1293-0179)
- Megan Mahajan (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7239-3056)
- Robbie Orvis (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7511-2611)
- John Bistline (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4816-5739)
- James McFarland
- John P. Weyant (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1001-484X)
- Morgan Browning (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7680-4764)
- Page Kyle (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1257-8358)
- Marc Melaina (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5231-2618)
- Shiqi Ou (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7844-5187)
- Olivier Bahn (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2935-1595)
- Carol S. Lenox (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2164-3024)
- Haewon McJeon (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0348-5704)
- Matteo Muratori (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1688-6742)
- Christopher Hoehne (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9904-2256)
- Allen A. Fawcett (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2980-0402)
- Catherine Ledna (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0543-0945)
- Kara Podkaminer (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0915-1131)
- Kathleen Vaillancourt (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9169-2721)
- Christopher Ramig
- Nadejda Victor (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4060-1268)
- Robert Beach (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8549-8546)
- Emma Starke (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0003-8842-7091)
- Trieu Mai
- S.T. Lie
- Aniss Bahreinian
Institutions
- HEC Montréal (CA)
- National Laboratory of the Rockies (US)
- Environmental Protection Agency (US)
- United States Department of Energy (US)
- Electric Power Research Institute (US)
- California Energy Commission (US)
- Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (US)
- Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KR)
- Simon Fraser University (CA)
- RTI International (US)
- National Energy Technology Laboratory (US)
- Energy Foundation (US)
- University of Maryland, College Park (US)
- University of Tennessee at Knoxville (US)
- South China University of Technology (CN)
- Stanford University (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Energy and Climate Change
- Published
- 2025-08-11
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.egycc.2025.100211
- Citations
- 3
- Primary Topic
- Vehicle emissions and performance
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 2.05
Funders
- U.S. Department of Energy