Stacking Ensemble of XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost for Green Economy Index Prediction

Indonesia faces persistent challenges in achieving sustainable development, particularly in harmonizing economic growth with environmental sustainability. The imbalance among economic, social, and environmental dimensions necessitates a comprehensive and reliable measurement tool to assess progress toward a green economy. The Green Economy Index (GEI), developed by the Ministry of National Development Planning (BAPPENAS), serves this function. However, limited data availability at the provincial level, such as in East Java, hampers accurate evaluation and informed policy formulation. This study aims to develop a machine learning-based predictive model for the GEI using a stacking ensemble approach that combines three powerful algorithms: XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost. The model was built using relevant economic, social, and environmental indicators and evaluated on a holdout dataset to assess its predictive accuracy and generalizability. The results show that the stacking ensemble model achieved superior performance compared to the individual models, recording an RMSE of 0.0298, MAE of 0.0225, and the R² score of 0.9774. In comparison, CatBoost, XGBoost, and LightGBM individually performed with slightly lower accuracy. These findings confirm that the stacking ensemble approach is highly effective for predicting GEI values and offers a practical, data-driven solution for supporting sustainable development strategies at the regional level. The study concludes that such predictive tools can significantly enhance policy planning and monitoring of green economic growth, although further research is recommended to validate the model across other provinces.