Mapping Ecosystem Carbon Storage in the Nanling Mountains of Guangdong Province Using Machine Learning Based on Multi-Source Remote Sensing

Accurate assessment of terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage is essential for understanding the global carbon cycle and informing climate change mitigation strategies. However, traditional estimation models face significant challenges in complex mountainous regions due to difficulties in data acquisition and high ecosystem heterogeneity. This study focuses on the Nanling Mountains in Guangdong Province, China, utilizing the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform to integrate multi-source remote sensing data (Sentinel-1/2, ALOS, GEDI, MODIS), topographic/climatic variables, and field-collected samples. We employed machine learning models to achieve high-precision prediction and high-resolution mapping of ecosystem carbon storage while also analyzing spatial differentiation patterns. The results indicate that the Random Forest algorithm outperformed Gradient Boosting Decision Tree and Classification and Regression Tree (CART) algorithms by suppressing overfitting through dual randomization. The integration of multi-source data significantly enhanced model performance, achieving a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.87 for aboveground biomass (AGB) and 0.65 for soil organic carbon (SOC). Integrating precipitation, temperature, and topographic variables improved SOC prediction accuracy by 96.77% compared to using optical data alone. The total carbon storage reached 404 million tons, with forest ecosystems contributing 96.7% of the total and soil carbon pools accounting for 60%. High carbon density zones (>160 Mg C/ha) were mainly concentrated in mid-elevation gentle slopes (300–700 m). The proposed integrated “optical-radar-topography-climate” framework offers a scalable and transferable solution for monitoring carbon storage in complex terrains and provides robust scientific support for carbon sequestration planning in subtropical mountain ecosystems.