Changes in Fertility Intentions and Influencing Factors Among the Childbearing‐Age Population Under the Three‐Child Policy: Evidence From Gansu Province, China

ABSTRACT China's population development faces low birth rates, prompting the introduction of a three‐child policy that impacts the fertility intentions of the childbearing‐age population. However, research on fertility intention is predominantly concentrated in the developed eastern regions, with limited studies focusing on the socioeconomic dynamics in the less‐represented northwest, such as Gansu Province. This region, with its unique socioeconomic challenges, presents a critical case for understanding fertility intentions in China's current policy context. Based on cross‐sectional data from the 2022 fertility intention survey of 79270 childbearing‐age individuals in Gansu Province, the fertility intention and influencing factors of the childbearing‐age population are analyzed. The study found that the fertility intention of people of childbearing‐age is influenced by a combination of economic, social and demographic factors, among which economic factors are the most critical. Middle‐income groups exhibit stronger fertility intentions, while both high‐ and low‐income groups show reduced procreative preferences due to career priorities and economic constraints, respectively. Improved education levels and enhanced social security lead childbearing‐age populations to prioritize personal development; however, women's fertility intentions are constrained by unemployment risks. Contrary to previous studies, this study reveals that fertility intentions increase with age, suggesting that middle‐aged individuals with stable careers and incomes may represent a key target for policy interventions. Additionally, factors such as gender, education level, workplace, and marital status significantly influence fertility intentions.