Evolution and dynamic prediction of urban-rural settlement patterns in a Chinese county-level city under new-type urbanization

Urbanization, while improving efficiency and quality of life, also causes environmental pressures and social inequality, prompting the Chinese government to introduce the New-Type Urbanization (NTU) strategy, which focuses on quality urban development and rural revitalization. This study analyzes the evolution of urban-rural settlement patterns in Xiantao from 1980 to 2030, focusing on urban-rural integration and coordinated development. A theoretical framework for county-level urban development under NTU is proposed, highlighting spatial driving factors that reflect policy influence, and the random forest model is used to assess their impact. The Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model simulates land use patterns for 2030 under three scenarios: Traditional Urbanization (TU), NTU, and Tourism Development (TD), revealing the dynamic interaction between urban-rural settlements and policy-driven factors. The study reveals significant urban land (UL) expansion in Xiantao from 1980 to 2015, concentrated in the city center and surrounding areas, primarily through edge expansion and infill development (97.72 %). Rural settlements (RS) grew more slowly, mainly at the peripheries. Urban-rural settlement growth was influenced by population migration, distance to water areas (WA), and public services. UL expansion was most impacted by population migration (18.99 %) and distance to WA (18.06 %), while RS growth was driven by distance to WA (30.14 %) and the city center (16.89 %). Future land use projections show varied growth under three scenarios. In the TU scenario, both urban and rural areas expand gradually. The NTU scenario promotes urban growth with better public services, resulting in more efficient land use and limited rural expansion. In the TD scenario, RS grow significantly due to ecotourism and conservation efforts, promoting sustainable development. • The spatial evolution of urban-rural settlements in Xiantao (a county-level city) from 1980 to 2030 was analyzed. • The influence of driving factors under the NTU policy on the spatial evolution of urban-rural settlements is determined. • The PLUS model was employed to simulate land use changes in Xiantao by 2030 under multiple scenarios. • Compared to TU, the NTU policy emphasizes the role of public services, with towns playing a greater role in development.