Using Victimization Reporting Rates to Estimate the Dark Figure of Crime: A Case Study of Domestic Violence

This paper illustrates how factoring in variables associated with reporting and underreporting can be used to adjust official statistics and generate an estimate of the true prevalence of domestic violence in a community. Combining data from the FBI National Incident Based Reporting System as well as the BJS National Crime Victimization Survey, we show several jurisdictions that have increased aggravated domestic rates in recent NIBRS data. Our up-adjusted total crime counts suggest using only NIBRS data is on average 40% smaller, with the underreporting varying from 23% to 76% across larger NIBRS reporting agencies. Combining law enforcement reports and victimization survey data, we provide more accurate estimates of the number of aggravated domestic violence incidents that occur in individual jurisdictions.