Wellbeing dynamics in sub-Saharan Africa: a spatial perspective across territorial typologies

Efforts to track welfare trends and spatially target interventions in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) have been constrained by a lack of recurrent and sufficiently granular data. To address this gap, we examine the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of welfare in the SSA using a new dataset of spatially-explicit welfare indicators (ATLAS AI) and explore how they have been influenced by different territorial typologies (market proximity and biophysical and climatic characteristics) over the last two decades. We find that while continent-wide per capita expenditure has improved between 2003 and 2021, these trends have been highly concentrated in urban areas and within populations already at the top of the per capita expenditure distribution in 2003. Welfare progress is observed in agroecological zones that cover small patches of SSA and concentrate only 18.1 % of the SSA population. Conversely, welfare improvement has been particularly constrained in the tropical lowlands of SSA, where 72.5 % of the rural population resides, and in desert and arid areas. These agroecological zones are already exposed to higher temperatures and will likely expand spatially as a result of climate change. Our findings reveal that rural populations residing in areas with limited access to markets, and where agricultural diversification potential is hindered by existing biophysical constraints, have experienced virtually no improvement in welfare over the last 20 years. • Overall improvement: Welfare (per capita expenditures) has risen continent-wide. • Uneven progress: Gains are concentrated in urban areas and among already wealthier populations. • Neglected regions: Tropical lowlands, desert and arid areas have seen limited welfare improvements. • These neglected regions are home to most of rural people and expected to expand under climate change. • Market isolation: Rural areas with poor market access and low agricultural diversification with no progress in last decades.