Metro Development, Traffic-Oriented Urban Development and Real Estate Value: Evidence from an Emerging Country

This research investigates the influence of metro infrastructure on property values, with a particular emphasis on the mediating role of transit-oriented development (TOD) in a major urban center within an emerging economy. By synthesizing insights from successful global implementations of TOD, the study examines how TOD serves as a catalyst in magnifying the positive externalities of metro systems on adjacent real estate markets. Utilizing a quantitative methodology, the analysis draws on secondary data spanning from 2015 to 2025, focusing on property price dynamics along Metro Line No.1 (Ben Thanh – Suoi Tien) in Ho Chi Minh City—an area undergoing rapid urbanization and facing an urgent demand for modern mass transit solutions. The findings reveal that residential land values tend to appreciate more significantly compared to commercial and mixed-use land. Moreover, the study highlights that substantial enhancements in regional infrastructure—such as transit accessibility, urban connectivity, and public service provision—are strongly correlated with increases in property market values in metro-proximate zones. These results underscore the strategic importance of TOD in leveraging transport investments to drive sustainable urban development and optimize land value capture in rapidly growing cities.