Import substitution in the global economy: historical experience and theoretical approaches

The article examines import substitution in the global economy in terms of the historical experience of various countries and theoretical approaches to its implementation. The research analyses the historical stages of the formation of import substitution as an economic phenomenon. It considers the industrialisation of the 19th – early 20th centuries in developed countries and the policy of post-war reconstruction in Latin America and Asia. Indeed, the paper draws a special attention to comparing the Latin American model, focused on the domestic market, with the East Asian approach, combining protectionism with an export-oriented strategy. Moreover, the research examines the positive and negative aspects of import substitution policy in various countries, including the impact of government support, the transparency of the economy, and the technological development. The relevance of the topic is due to the increasing policy of sanctions pressure on Russia, causing the implementation of the effective import substitution measures, especially in high-tech industries. For instance, Russia's dependence on imports in 2022 in the manufacture of medicines reaches 45%, in the manufacture of textiles – 28%, and in heavy machinery – 65%. Therefore, it as a threat to national economic security. The purpose of this study is to examine the historical experience of the global economy, analyse the theoretical approaches to import substitution, and identify the most effective strategies for its implementation in modern Russia. Logically, we study the historical experience of the different countries to understand the prerequisites and consequences of import substitution policy, and the theoretical foundations of the concept to form a comprehensive understanding of the phenomenon. This paper dwells on the use of historical, comparative, and logical methods, and analyses the works of leading economists. Analysing various approaches to concept of import substitution, we conclude on the importance of a balanced approach. Those combines a multi-level economic strategy for the development of competitive national production with the ability to completely or partially replace imported goods and the structure of imports.