Power, Politics, and Peace: The Case for Dialogue in Somalia's Protracted Conflict

Abstract: Somalia has been in a perpetual state of conflict since 1991 and continues to rank among the world's poorest nations. Separatist movements and terrorist extremism have challenged the reestablishment of a stable, centralized government in Mogadishu. The Al-Shabaab militant group and the Somali state have been entrenched in conflict since 2009, leading to an ongoing loss of Somali lives and persistent instability that hampers economic growth and political progress. Experts have long characterized the civil war as a stalemate, asserting that the only viable path to resolving the crisis would be through political engagement with Al-Shabaab, including power-sharing negotiations. While Mogadishu will need to make difficult and contentious concessions, the imperative to end the conflict may outweigh these sacrifices. This article examines Somalia's historical and political trajectory from the 1990s, beginning with the authoritarian rule of Siad Barre, including a particular focus on the ongoing conflict with Al-Shabaab. This analysis examines the power dynamics between the Federal Government of Somalia and Al-Shabaab within the broader context of state-building efforts, highlighting potential opportunities for peace.