Prediction of current and future environmental suitability for Toona ciliata cultivation in Brazil

Cultivation of tree species, especially for sawn timber purposes, is an important activity to circumvent the long history of predatory wood extraction in tropical ecosystems. The sustainable exploitation of a tree species requires knowledge about its edaphoclimatic requirements, especially in ex-situ introduction. Thus, climatic suitability zoning is essential for defining areas with potential for cultivation of a new perennial species. This study aimed to map the edaphoclimatic zoning and suitability for Toona ciliata cultivation in Brazil. For climatic suitability mapping, data on the natural occurrence of T. ciliata in Australia were used to train three species distribution models (SDMs) using 19 WorldClim biovariables derived from historical climate data (1970–2000) and four soil physical properties extracted from SoilGrids database. The predictions of T. ciliata throughout the Brazilian territory were conducted under historical climate norms (1970–2000) and three future periods (2021–2040; 2041–2060 and 2061–2080) under the socioeconomic scenario SSP58.5. The ensemble predictions of the models indicate potentially suitable areas in the south-east and western Amazon region of Brazil, totaling 28.3% of the territory in the high and good suitability classes. A drastic and linear reduction in suitability areas is projected under a climate change scenario. By 2061–2080, only 4.8% of the Brazilian territory is expected to have high and good suitability, with a high suitability area persisting in the Southern Brazil.