IS OBESITY INCREASING AMONG THE AZERBAIJANI POPULATION? A DATA-DRIVEN ANALYSIS OF BMI TRENDS IN AZERBAIJAN

Obesity has emerged as one of the most pressing public health challenges of the 21st century, with implications that extend into adulthood and affect individuals’ physical, psychological, and social well-being. Global trends indicate that increasing body weight is closely linked to a range of lifestyle and environmental factors, including reduced physical activity, high-calorie diets, urbanizetion, increased screen time, and socioeconomic disparities. Although this phenomenon has been extensively studied in high-income countries, there remains a significant gap in regionspecific analyses, particularly in the South Caucasus. This study aims to fill this gap by investigating the prevalence and progression of obesity in Azerbaijan, using a data-driven approach grounded in public health, sports science, and data analytics. By examining Body Mass Index (BMI) data from people in Azerbaijan, this research evaluates national trends and identifies the potential determinants of excessive weight gain. The study employs a positivist research paradigm and relies on a quantitative methodology to ensure objectivity, replicability, and statistical validity. Drawing on established international frameworks, the analysis incorporates both raw BMI values and standardized BMI scores (BMI SDS) to assess year-to-year changes. This methodological choice is informed by prior research, such as Brannsether et al. (2014), which emphasizes the importance of monitoring annual increments in BMI and conditional BMI SDS as reliable indicators of abnormal or unexpected weight development in children’s growth trajectories. Brannsether and colleagues demonstrated that significant shifts in BMI SDS could serve as early warning signs of potential health risks, even in children whose absolute BMI values may not yet exceed clinical thresholds. Integrating this approach into the Azerbaijani context allows for a more nuanced understandding of how localized social, cultural, and economic variables may influence childhood obesity patterns. Ultimately, the study not only contributes to academic discourse but also provides evidence-based recommendations for educators, health professionals, and policymakers aiming to design targeted interventions that promote healthier lifestyles among population in Azerbaijan.