Future Climate and Hydrological Extremes in Ethiopia: A CMIP6‐Based Analysis

In the face of climate change, extreme weather events (EWEs) pose significant challenges on a global scale. This study assesses the long‐term climate trends and extreme precipitation indices across Ethiopia using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets under medium emission (SSP2‐4.5) and high emission (SSP5‐8.5) scenarios. We applied indices from the World Meteorological Organization, Expert Team on Sector‐Specific Climate Indices (ET‐SCI) to analyze both national averages and regional variations. Projected climate trends across Ethiopia show substantial warming and increased precipitation under both SSP2‐4.5 and SSP5‐8.5 scenarios. Compared to the 1991–2010 baseline, mean annual precipitation is projected to increase by about 18% (SSP2‐4.5) and 41% (SSP5‐8.5) by the late 21st century, with the greatest intensification during the main rainy season (June–September). However, dry‐season rainfall remains low, sustaining strong seasonality and heightening the risk of both floods and droughts. Spatially, rainfall increases are concentrated in the already wetter southwestern highlands, while arid lowlands see limited gains, potentially widening hydrological disparities. Mean maximum and minimum temperatures are also projected to rise by up to 3.6 and 4.6°C under SSP5‐8.5, respectively, with high‐temperature zones expanding into formerly cooler regions. Drought projections, based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), suggest a notable decrease in drought occurrences, especially under SSP5‐8.5 scenario. Regional disparities highlight varying rainfall and temperature patterns, with increased risks of severe flooding in central, western, and southwestern Ethiopia under SSP5‐8.5 scenario. The study indicates no significant historical trends in extreme precipitation indices but notes substantial increases under both emission scenarios, particularly SSP5‐8.5. These findings highlight the need for targeted adaptation strategies, including improved water management, early warning systems, and sustainable land use planning, to enhance climate resilience and support vulnerable communities in Ethiopia.