Effects of climate on temporal variability in streamflow and salinity in the Upper Colorado River Basin

The Upper Colorado River Basin, a critical water source for more than 40 million people in the western United States. Potential decreasing streamflow and elevated salinity concentrations threaten this resource. Climate variability has a large and well-studied effect on streamflow in the basin; however, the effect on salinity loading is less understood. This study investigates how snowpack dynamics, precipitation volume, and air temperature affect both streamflow and salinity at the basin scale from water years 1986–2021. Climate variables explained 54 % of streamflow variability and 40 % of salinity variability across the basin. Both streamflow and salinity yields have declined in response to climate variability, but their response occurs on different timescales. Streamflow is more sensitive to snowpack, whereas salinity yields respond more strongly to antecedent precipitation. The delayed response of salinity yields may obscure the effects of both climate variability and salinity control measures. Residual analysis identified subbasins where the climate-salinity relation deviated from basin-wide patterns, suggesting that possible anthropogenic or other watershed processes may influence salinity loading in these areas. These novel findings underscore the importance of accounting for climate variability when evaluating long-term trends in streamflow and salinity. • Basin-wide salinity trends appear to be strongly influenced by climate. • Climate affects salinity yields differently than streamflow yields. • Antecedent precipitation important control on variability in salinity yields.