Assessment of socio-economic vulnerability to disaster risks in shrinking cities of Northeast China: A case study of Harbin

Shrinking cities are more vulnerable to abrupt changes triggered by economic fluctuation and disaster events, particularly in Northeast China, due to a lack of resources including financial support, young labor, technological capacity, and skilled talent. Climate change has led to an increase in both the frequency and intensity of extreme events, surpassing traditional typologies and thereby elevating risks. Additionally, economic downturns and technological revolutions result in higher unemployment. This research evaluates the socio-economic vulnerability of shrinking cities in Northeast China, using Harbin as a case study. By integrating open data, this study employs an innovative methodological approach combining PCA-based socio-economic vulnerability assessment, GWR modeling, and XGBoost algorithm with SHAP analysis to measure urban shrinkage patterns. The findings reveal regional disparities in the distribution of socio-economic vulnerability. Specifically, the maps highlight areas within a city exhibiting heightened vulnerability to disaster risks. Furthermore, this research discovers spatial overlap between socio-economic vulnerability and disaster risks in shrinking cities, as well. A dynamic, bidirectional feedback mechanism exists where socio-economic vulnerability intensifies exposure to disaster risks and vice versa. This research contributes new insights into the study of urban shrinkage while offering critical implications for the management of disaster risks under current climate change scenarios.