The impact of terminating universal primary education on fertility: Evidence from Kenya

This paper investigates the educational impact on fertility caused by the termination of universal primary education (UPE) in Kenya. Although previous studies have used the introduction of UPE as a natural experiment, we focus on a unique policy change, namely, the termination of UPE. By using six waves of the Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (KDHS), our paper presents the statistically significant discontinuity in female years of education at the termination of UPE. The termination of UPE led to a decrease of 0.57 years in of female education. Using a fuzzy regression discontinuity design, we identify the impacts of education on both onset of fertility and total fertility. One additional year of female education delays onset of fertility by 0.67 years and reduces total fertility by 0.21 fewer children by the age of 46 years. As for the mechanism of these changes, we explore three possible pathways: labor participation, knowledge of contraception, and assortative mating. • This paper investigates the educational impact on fertility caused by the termination of universal primary education (UPE) in Kenya. • The termination of UPE led to a decrease of 0.57 years in female education. • We identify the impacts of education on both the onset of fertility and total fertility. • One additional year of female education delays the onset of fertility and reduces total fertility by 0.21 fewer children. • In the end, as for the mechanism of these changes, we explore three possible pathways.