Financial Technology and Chinese Commercial Banks’ Overall Profitability: A “U-Shaped” Relationship

The comprehensive integration of modern technologies, such as artificial intelligence and big data, into the financial sector in recent years has profoundly transformed the operating model of the traditional financial industry. These technologies not only redefine the operating mechanisms of the financial industry but also significantly reshape the competitive landscape and strategic development of commercial banks. To investigate the impact of FinTech on the overall profitability of commercial banks, this study utilizes a balanced panel dataset comprising 50 listed commercial banks in China from 2012 to 2023 and conducts an empirical analysis based on a fixed-effects model. The findings reveal that, from a dynamic perspective, there exists a significant U-shaped relationship between FinTech and the comprehensive profitability of commercial banks, with a development threshold of 2.86. When the level of FinTech development falls below this critical threshold, its impact on the profitability of commercial banks is predominantly negative. However, once FinTech development surpasses this threshold, its positive effects on enhancing the profitability of commercial banks gradually emerge. Therefore, the government should provide phased policy support to achieve both short-term burden reduction and long-term innovation, and commercial banks should adopt FinTech development as a long-term strategic priority.