Resource curse in the age of critical minerals: Geopolitical forces and market maturity

The global demand for critical minerals—such as lithium, cobalt, and rare earth elements—essential to renewable energy and technology, raises concerns about a modern resurgence of Dutch Disease in resource-rich countries. Traditional models focus on internal factors—such as fiscal capacity and institutional quality—to explain how countries manage the economic effects of resource extraction but overlook external conditions like geopolitical competition and the maturity of the specific commodity markets in which these resources are traded. This article introduces a comprehensive framework that integrates these external dimensions, offering a more nuanced perspective on resource curse in a decarbonization context. By addressing supply-side risks of windfall revenues, that are particularly relevant for commodity exporters of the South, we are closing a critical knowledge gap in the energy geopolitics debate, which predominantly focuses on demand-side risks associated with concerns of OECD and BRIC economies, such as energy security and supply chain disruption. The argument is substantiated through four case studies—Indonesia (nickel), Chile (copper), the Democratic Republic of Congo (cobalt), and Argentina (lithium)—which exemplify distinct combinations of commodity market maturity and geopolitical engagement and demonstrate the varied policy trade-offs that result.