Risk Identification and Resilience Research on the Fresh Food Supply Chain Disruption under the COVID-19 Lockdown in Shanghai

The citywide lockdown implemented during the 2022 COVID-19 outbreak in Shanghai caused systemic disruptions to the fresh produce supply chain, exposing the deep-seated vulnerabilities of the city's emergency supply system under extreme conditions. This paper uses this event as a case study, drawing on supply chain risk management and resilience theory, and employs process analysis and FMEA failure mode diagnosis to reveal the transmission pathways of fresh produce supply chain disruption risks and the shortcomings in resilience. The study found that the lockdown policies led to interprovincial logistics bottlenecks and a sharp decline in last-mile delivery capacity, resulting in severe imbalances in the supply chain, such as “stagnant sales and spoilage at the production end” and “supply shortages and price hikes at the consumption end.” The core causes of these issues were three shortcomings: over-reliance on a single logistics channel, insufficient emergency cold chain storage capacity, and ineffective information coordination between government, businesses, and farmers. In response, the study proposes a resilience enhancement strategy based on “infrastructure-digital systems-organizational collaboration,” including the construction of an emergency cold storage network in suburban areas and backup multi-modal transportation channels to strengthen physical buffer capacity, the development of a supply chain collaboration platform to integrate information flows across the entire supply chain for dynamic demand forecasting and precise resource allocation, and the design of a “peace-emergency combined” transportation capacity allocation mechanism and a “production area-community” direct short-chain model. This research provides a theoretical framework and practical reference for risk prevention and control in the fresh food supply chain of megacities, and holds application value for government coordination of emergency supply systems and enterprise optimization of supply chain resilience.