Vessel size and target species determine the resilience of fishing sectors to policy shocks: evidence from the 2019 Baltic Sea cod ban

Abstract Global fish stock collapses caused by overfishing have led to increasingly stringent regulatory measures, posing serious challenges to the livelihoods of fishing communities. This study examines the resilience of different fishing sectors—categorized by vessel size (fishing boat, cutter, supercutter) and target species (demersal, mixed, small pelagic)—in response to changes induced by management measures, using the 2019 cod ban in the Baltic Sea as a case study. A mixed-methods approach was employed, combining a Likert-scale survey of 129 respondents across 17 fishing harbours with semi-structured interviews of 28 fishermen to obtain detailed quantitative and qualitative insights into the impact of the cod ban across different vessel sizes and fishing activity groups. Fishing boats, the smallest vessels, emerged as the least resilient due to their limited gear and target species flexibility. In contrast, cutters and supercutters involved in mixed or small pelagic activities demonstrated moderate resilience. A notable finding was that the cod's ban had direct and indirect impacts across all fishing types, highlighting how regulatory decisions targeting a single stock can trigger ripple effects throughout the entire fisheries sector. Stocks are carefully allocated across registered vessels, removing access to one species such as cod, not only affects those who directly depended on it, but also leads to redistribution of quotas and restrictions that influence all groups. The reduction in small pelagic quotas to support cod recovery has also added pressure to sectors that did not directly target cod. Cutter operators reported the greatest economic distress, with many facing difficulties adapting to new quota limits due to high operational costs and low profitability. Conversely, some fishing boats and supercutters displayed greater flexibility, though reduced quota access of sprat and herring stocks and the limited economic viability of alternative fisheries such as flounder continue to pose challenges for many fishermen. The Friedman test reinforced the notion that vessel size and target species function together to determine how fishermen respond to change. The study highlights the need for more nuanced policy responses that account for the wider effects of stock closures on different vessel types and fishing activities.