Transition to Hydrogen Aviation: A 2030–2050 Scenario Performance Analysis for an Airline

This study presents a realistic hypothetical scenario-based analysis of an airline’s transition from kerosene to hydrogen propulsion between 2030 and 2050, under a Techno-Economic Environmental Risk Assessment (TERA) framework. Two scenarios are modelled: a baseline fleet scenario using only conventional CMRT and CLRT aircraft, and a hydrogen transition scenario that introduces hydrogen-powered Airbus ZEROe and HVLMR aircraft starting in 2035. Using detailed aircraft (Orion from Cranfield) and jet engine (TURBOMATCH from Cranfield) performance simulations across 85 global routes, fuel consumption, energy demand, emissions, and operating costs are assessed. Strategic hydrogen hubs at London Heathrow and Neom Bay enable network feasibility for aircraft with limited range. Key findings show that the hydrogen scenario reduces total fuel mass consumption by approximately 28%, due to hydrogen’s high specific energy, and cuts CO2 emissions by 49%, assuming green hydrogen usage. However, it also results in a 9.6% increase in energy demand and ~15–20% higher cumulative operating costs, driven by greater depreciation, maintenance, and fuel price premiums. While the hydrogen transition introduces higher upfront and operational costs, it offers long-term environmental benefits and compliance with net-zero aviation goals. The study concludes that hydrogen aviation holds strategic promise but faces significant technical challenges, particularly due to the immaturity of hydrogen storage and propulsion systems. Realising this potential will require coordinated investment in infrastructure, policy support, and adaptive route planning.