A trade-off analysis of deforestation and economic growth in East Africa

• Analyzes deforestation-growth link in East Africa using panel data (1990–2023). • Applies panel ARDL to address variable integration and country heterogeneity. • GDP growth, capital formation reduce deforestation in the long run. • Agriculture, energy use increase deforestation due to land and biomass reliance. • Error correction term confirms stable long-run relationship. Deforestation remains a pressing environmental challenge across East Africa, driven largely by agricultural expansion, energy consumption, and infrastructural development. This study investigates the dynamic relationship between deforestation and economic growth using panel data from 1990 to 2023 across eight East African countries: The Republic of Burundi, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the Republic of Kenya, the Republic of Rwanda, the Federal Republic of Somalia, the Republic of South Sudan, the Republic of Uganda, and the United Republic of Tanzania. A Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (P-ARDL) model was employed, incorporating variables such as GDP growth, agricultural value added, gross capital formation, and energy consumption. The findings reveal that while GDP growth and capital investment are associated with a reduction in deforestation over the long run, agricultural expansion and energy consumption significantly contribute to forest loss. These results highlight the need for regionally harmonized sustainable development strategies that balance economic progress with ecological preservation. The study recommends policy interventions focusing on sustainable agriculture, energy diversification, and regional forest governance frameworks.