Physics-Informed and Explainable Graph Neural Networks for Generalizable Urban Building Energy Modeling

Urban building energy prediction is a critical challenge for sustainable city planning and large-scale retrofit prioritization. However, traditional data-driven models struggle to capture real urban environments’ spatial and morphological complexity. In this study, we systematically benchmark a range of graph-based neural networks (GNNs)—including graph convolutional network (GCN), GraphSAGE, and several physics-informed graph attention network (GAT) variants—against conventional artificial neural network (ANN) baselines, using both shape coefficient and energy use intensity (EUI) stratification across three distinct residential districts. Extensive ablation and cross-district generalization experiments reveal that models explicitly incorporating interpretable physical edge features, such as inter-building distance and angular relation, achieve significantly improved prediction accuracy and robustness over standard approaches. Among all models, GraphSAGE demonstrates the best overall performance and generalization capability. At the same time, the effectiveness of specific GAT edge features is found to be district-dependent, reflecting variations in local morphology and spatial logic. Furthermore, explainability analysis shows that the integration of domain-relevant spatial features enhances model interpretability and provides actionable insight for urban retrofit and policy intervention. The results highlight the value of physics-informed GNNs (PINN) as a scalable, transferable, and transparent tool for urban energy modeling, supporting evidence-based decision making in the context of aging residential building upgrades and sustainable urban transformation.