Sustainable development at the crossroads: Geopolitical risks, natural resource scarcity, and renewable energy in energy security transitions

• Resource-rich nations face higher energy risks and strategic diversification. • Energy efficiency policies are critical for cutting demand and boosting system resilience. • Infrastructure upgrades and smart grids are key to stabilizing energy security long-term. • Climate change, renewable energy, and geopolitical risk are considered. • Energy security is negatively correlated with foreign direct investment. Energy security is a crucial aspect of modern societies, as it directly impacts the availability, accessibility, and reliability of energy sources. The reliance on natural resources and geopolitical factors in shaping energy security has gained significant attention in recent years. Natural resources and geopolitical risk are examined in 38 countries at risk of geopolitical conflict between 1990 and 2021 by examining CO 2 emissions, renewable energy consumption, and foreign direct investment as controlling variables. The long-run analysis conducted in this study focused on slope heterogeneity, Westerlund cointegration, and dynamic panel data estimation. The findings indicated that the energy security index is positively associated with various determinants, including natural resources, geopolitical risk, CO 2 emissions, and renewable energy consumption. However, foreign direct investment was found to be negatively associated with the energy security index among the selected 38 geopolitical risk countries. The role of natural resources and geopolitical risk in energy security cannot be overlooked. Natural resources provide the raw materials for generating electricity and powering our societies, while geopolitical risks can disrupt energy supply chains and threaten stability. Achieving sustainable energy security requires a comprehensive approach that addresses both aspects of energy provision. Transitioning to renewable energy sources, improving energy efficiency, diversifying energy supplies, promoting international cooperation, and conserving natural resources are essential steps towards a more sustainable and resilient energy future.