Unveiling Spatiotemporal Evolution and the Influence of Net Carbon Sinks in Cultivated Land Systems in the Middle Reaches of the Yangtze River

ABSTRACT Identifying the characteristics and driving factors of the carbon balance within major food‐producing areas is important for achieving low‐carbon and green production in cultivated land. In the middle reaches of the Yangtze River (MRYR), a global rice production hub, it is challenging to ensure food security while mitigating agricultural carbon emissions. However, the designs, indicator systems, and approaches used in past studies have limitations. To overcome these limitations, we established a process framework to evaluate internal and external carbon cycle flows in cultivated land systems. The net carbon sink of cultivated land (NCSCL) in the MRYR was measured from the dual perspective of cultivated land as both a source and a sink from 2006 to 2022. The spatial and temporal changes and driving factors were explored via spatial autocorrelation analysis, kernel density estimation, and GeoDetector modeling. Moreover, a pathway for carbon sequestration and emission reduction was proposed. The results indicated that the NCSCL in the study area increased from 26.26 million tons in 2006 to 37.01 million tons in 2022, with an average annual increase of 1.93%. The carbon sink function was consistently highlighted. In addition, the NCSCL in each city exhibited a spatial distribution pattern of low‐value dispersion and high‐value agglomeration. There was a spatial correlation trend involving alternating changes in the NCSCL, namely, positive agglomeration–negative agglomeration–positive agglomeration. NCSCL diffusion throughout the province and within local regions occurred, and both the NCSCL levels and regional differences continuously increased. The results revealed multiple interaction effects of the driving factors on the spatial pattern of the NCSCL. The spatiotemporal pattern of the NCSCL was affected mainly by cultivated land utilization and agricultural economic factors, with the cultivated land area and agricultural mechanization level as the main influencing factors. Moreover, there was regional heterogeneity in the influence of the driving factors. These findings could be used to optimize the systematic measurement of the NCSCL to provide a decision‐making reference for carbon sequestration in cultivated land.