Ex-post impact analysis of the Philippine pig repopulation program

The 3-year Integrated National Swine Production Initiatives for Recovery and Expansion (INSPIRE) program is the national repopulation and recovery program of the Philippine Department of Agriculture-National Livestock Program, offering a mix of interventions aimed at reviving the swine industry, which was significantly impacted by African Swine Fever (ASF). The study focused on the interventions provided to the three regions with the highest allocation from fiscal years (FYs) 2022 and 2023: Central Luzon, CALABARZON, and the Davao region. A combination of SARIMA modeling and financial analyses was employed to measure the impacts of the repopulation program. Two forecasts were created: one assumes a situation without African swine fever outbreaks, using datasets from 2000Q1 to 2019Q2, whereas the other reflects the situation prior to the implementation of the INSPIRE program, which utilizes datasets from 2000Q1 to 2021Q4. The study estimated the impact of the INSPIRE program in these three regions, revealing that Central Luzon and CALABARZON significantly benefited from the program. Without the INSPIRE program, pig production in Central Luzon could have been wiped out by the second quarter of 2022 (2022Q2), whereas CALABARZON would have faced a similar scenario by the first quarter of 2023 (2023Q1). In contrast, the INSPIRE program had a lesser impact in the Davao Region, as it was affected by ASF later. The cost benefit analysis and net present value of the program investments yielded favorable ratios that indicate their financial viability and success. Based on the impact analysis, it is recommended that the swine repopulation program be continued beyond 2025 with increased funding. This is the first study in the Philippines which utilizes time series SARIMA forecasting to evaluate the impact of a pig repopulation program.