Inferential Analysis of Shoreline Erosion: A Case Study for Jupiter Inlet Lighthouse Outstanding Natural Area

Manikkavasagam, N.; Nagarajan, S., and De Witt, P., 2025. Inferential analysis of shoreline erosion: A case study for Jupiter Inlet Lighthouse Outstanding Natural Area. Journal of Coastal Research, 41(5), 873–883. Charlotte (North Carolina), ISSN 0749-0208. As a critical boundary between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, shorelines are highly dynamic and sensitive to various environmental, atmospheric, and anthropogenic factors. Modeling shoreline erosion is a challenging task, and many factors can influence the results. Monitoring the shoreline change and analyzing the factors influencing shoreline erosion are essential actions to preserve coastal ecosystems and natural habitats. This study examined the impact of various atmospheric and ocean parameters on coastal erosion using shoreline data derived from low-altitude uncrewed aerial system images for the years 2017 to 2023. Atmospheric and ocean parameters included tidal range, wind speed, significant wave height, wave period, rainfall, sea-level pressure, and sea-surface temperature. Two significant statistical methods were used for the inferential analysis of shoreline erosion. Conditional entropy was used to quantify the influence of these factors on the shoreline change rate, and partial correlation was used to identify and quantify the significant factors that impacted the shoreline change rate and its directionality. This study was conducted at the Jupiter Inlet Lighthouse Outstanding Natural Area in Florida. This area has about 1200 m of shoreline and has experienced significant retreat up to 30 m over 70 years. Higher tidal ranges are linked with greater erosion, according to the study, which found a substantial negative correlation (coefficient = –1.20, p = 0.012) between tidal range and shoreline erosion rates. On the other hand, the importance of wave period in encouraging sediment deposition is highlighted by the significant positive correlation it showed with accretion (coefficient = 1.61, p = 0.019).