Capacity Planning in Maintenance Repair and Overhaul Operations: Evaluating Uncertainty with Discrete Event Simulation

The Maintenance, Repair and Overhaul (MRO) activities in the aviation industry face constant challenges due to the uncertainty and variability of their operations. Aircraft engine maintenance, which is fundamental to the safety of aircraft operations, is particularly challenging due to its job-shop nature. Each engine requires a specific intervention process, based on its condition and the needs identified. The inherent uncertainty in task duration, resource availability, and the scope of required repairs adds complexity to capacity planning. Traditional capacity planning methods often fall short in accounting for these uncertainties, leading to potential inefficiencies and bottlenecks. Discrete Event Simulation (DES) emerges as a powerful tool to address these challenges. By modelling the entire MRO process, DES can consider various scenarios, incorporating the stochastic nature of task times, machine downtimes, and labour availability. This study explores the application of DES to evaluate capacity planning and quantify the impact of uncertainty on operational efficiency. The proposed methodology enables the anticipation of delays and enhances resource management. The primary contribution of this work is the ability to predict delays and quantify their impact. The future application of this tool in real-world MRO operations has the potential to enhance operational efficiency and reliability.