Examining technology-policy co-evolution in commercial low-earth orbit

The rapid commercialization of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) has outpaced the evolution of regulatory frameworks, creating significant policy lag and regulatory uncertainty for commercial LEO operators. This delay hampers innovation, driven by outdated regulatory structures that struggle to accommodate rapid technological advancements, intensifying competition, and precautionary approaches toward the growing space economy. This article applies and extends the Multiple Streams Framework (MSF)—a model traditionally used to analyze policy adoption and agenda-setting—to examine the co-evolution of commercial LEO technologies and the policies that regulate them. We employ a mixed-methods approach, combining thematic analysis of U.S. federal policy documents with expert interviews. We explore how incumbent and emergent technology constituencies shape policy outcomes by influencing the problem, policy, politics, and technology streams, revealing how these interactions create both opportunities and barriers for regulatory change. Focusing on topic issues within three key issues—spectrum management, orbital debris mitigation, and launch licensing—this study illustrates how technological innovations disrupt established regulatory practices, contributing to the broader discourse on satellite policy and the governance of emerging technologies in rapidly evolving markets.