Lightning strike probability assessment and analysis on wind turbine blades

Abstract Lightning strike damage to wind turbine blades is one of the critical issues threatening the safe operation of wind farms. Traditional analytical methods struggle to quantify the lightning strike probability at any point on the blade surface, leaving the design of existing lightning protection systems without reliable theoretical support. This study, based on the physical mechanism of upward leader initiation, constructs a computational model for lightning strike probability on wind turbine blade surfaces, achieving a quantitative assessment of lightning strike probability. Through numerical simulations, the study systematically investigates the distribution characteristics of lightning strike probability under the coupled effects of multiple factors, such as blade pitch angle, lateral distance of the downward leader, and lightning receptor arrangement, for a typical 1.5 MW wind turbine. The reliability of the model is validated through experimental data. This assessment model provides important theoretical foundations and technical support for the optimized design of lightning protection systems for wind turbine blades.