Ship collision frequency factors modeling using gas kinetic theory and monte Carlo simulations

Abstract Based on the gas kinetic theory, this study calculates the relationship between collision probability and three key parameters: the number of encountering vessels, vessel speed, and inter-vessel distance. The Monte Carlo simulation method was employed to validate the computational results. The findings demonstrate that the frequency of vessel collisions is directly proportional to the reciprocal of inter-vessel distance, as well as to both the number of vessels and their speeds. This research provides a theoretical foundation for decision-support systems in vessel collision avoidance.