Methodology to Perform a Comparative Prospective Life Cycle Assessment of New Bio-Based Materials

The transition to a more sustainable and circular economy has led to a growing interest in the development of new bio-based materials. These emerging bio-based materials and production technologies have the potential to significantly reduce environmental impacts compared to conventional fossil-based alternatives. However, assessing their environmental implications at an early stage is crucial to inform strategic decision-making, guide sustainable development and validate their potential environmental benefits. To this end, it is necessary to conduct a prospective or ex-ante life cycle assessment (LCA), which allows for a forward-looking evaluation of their environmental performance. This paper overviews methodological approaches and frameworks for the assessment of new bio-based materials, providing guidance on best practices for modelling prospective LCAs. It proposes a structured methodology that integrates key aspects of prospective LCA, addressing critical challenges such as the availability of inventory data, modelling uncertainties and definition of system boundaries. The proposed approach, developed through a comprehensive literature review on ex-ante and prospective LCA, is applied to several biobased materials, ensuring its practical relevance. Furthermore, this study identifies major challenges in performing prospective LCA of new bio-based material, particularly in modelling approaches and inventory data collection, and provides structured solutions to overcome these limitations. The resulting methodology serves as a guideline for researchers and material developers aiming to conduct robust and transparent prospective or ex-ante LCAs for emerging bio-based materials, thereby supporting informed policy-making and sustainable technological innovation.