Advancing sustainability in the U.S. pulp and paper industry: Decarbonization through energy efficiency, electrification, low-carbon fuels, and the social cost of emissions

The increasing need to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions from the industrial sector requires a clear understanding and effective implementation of decarbonization strategies. The U.S. pulp and paper industry is responsible for 78 million metric tons (MT) of fossil carbon emissions annually across four major mill configurations: virgin integrated, non-integrated, recycle integrated, and virgin-recycle integrated. These mills manufacture diverse products, necessitating specific decarbonization strategies. This study presents a comprehensive analysis of three decarbonization pathways, energy efficiency through improved dewatering, electrification, and low-carbon fuels, tailored to each mill configuration. Distinct energy flows and emission hotspots were identified across environmental scopes: Scope 1 (direct emissions), Scope 2 (purchased electricity), and Scope 3 (external operations). A virgin integrated linerboard mill has the highest fossil fuel share (52 %) in Scope 1, along with 1968 kg CO 2 -eq per MT of biogenic emissions. In contrast, a non-integrated tissue mill shows the highest contribution (40 %) from Scope 2. Switching to 100 % biomass fuel reduces total CO 2 -eq emissions by 48 % in the integrated mill, while biomass-powered gas turbines can achieve a 38 % reduction in the non-integrated mill. Under a green grid scenario, electrification reduces emissions by 61 % in the non-integrated mill and by 52 % in the integrated mill. However, some strategies present trade-offs across other environmental impact categories. Additionally, the social cost, representing the monetized societal damage from CO 2 -eq emissions, was estimated to assess broader implications. Overall, this study recommends case-specific approaches for decarbonizing different mill configurations and highlights the social impact of the evaluated strategies, contributing to the development of a comprehensive strategic roadmap for a more sustainable forest products industry. • Tailored decarbonization strategies for diverse manufacturing operations and process configurations. • Evaluated trade-offs between energy efficiency gains and impacts on the steam-to-power balance in mills. • Enhanced press dewatering and clean electrification reduce emissions across all manufacturing scenarios. • Low-carbon fuel switching and electrification could reduce emissions by up to 48 % and 61 %, respectively. • Social cost-benefit analysis shows ∼3.2 billion annual savings from CO 2 reductions via low-carbon fuel switching.