Analysis of the impact on GHG emissions from the adoption of electric vehicles in the vehicle fleet of the state of São Paulo, Brazil: Systematic review and ridge regression analysis

This research investigates the potential impact of adopting electric vehicles (EVs) on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions within the Brazilian state of São Paulo. The aim is to evaluate the extent to which varying EV adoption rates can contribute to emissions reductions. A systematic literature review, conducted in accordance with the PRISMA framework, synthesised recent studies concerning the impacts of EVs. This qualitative analysis was complemented by quantitative modelling employing historical data pertaining to São Paulo’s vehicle fleet, fuel consumption, and emissions factors. Ridge regression models and optimisation algorithms, implemented in MATLAB® R2024b, were utilised to estimate emissions reductions across three distinct EV adoption scenarios: 25 %, 50 %, and 75 %. The analysis considered both the direct emissions from vehicle operation and the indirect emissions associated with electricity generation. Key findings highlight a significant potential for GHG emission reductions with increasing EV adoption rates. The novelty of this work lies in its specific focus on the context of São Paulo, Brazil, integrating a systematic review with robust statistical modelling to provide regionally relevant insights into the environmental implications of transport electrification.