The 2024 European Parliament election: Another second-order national election?

One of the most influential theories of voting in European Parliament (EP) elections holds that voters perceive them to be “second-order” to and less consequential than “first-order” national elections. Consequently, many voters would use EP elections to voice dissatisfaction with the national government and signal their sincere preferences by supporting smaller, fringe parties. This letter assesses whether the party-level results in the 2024 EP election are (still) in line with the second-order patterns established by previous research. In accordance with those, larger parties and parties in national government—especially prime ministerial parties later in the electoral cycle—lost votes on average in 2024 compared to the preceding national election. When accounting for these regularities, there is barely any evidence of party families systematically gaining or losing.