Nationalism, Regime Type, and Trade Agreements

Nationalism is on the rise throughout the world. Scholars and practitioners have expressed concern about the effects of rising nationalism on international cooperation, arguing that nationalism poses a risk to the liberal international economic order. Other observers maintain that nationalism need not be associated with trade protectionism. Yet there has been little cross-country research on the effects of nationalism on trade cooperation. We argue that nationalism has led to a reluctance to sign trade agreements in democracies, but that its effects on trade policy in autocracies are ambiguous. Nationalism in the public is associated with antipathy toward trade. Since democratically elected governments must be responsive to their constituents or risk losing office, nationalist governments in democratic countries tend to be protectionist. We find a strong negative relationship between nationalism and signing trade agreements in democracies. These findings shed light on the dynamics of trade and globalization in the current era of nationalism.