GIS-driven techno-economic & environmental feasibility of power-to-X pathways: A multi-country analysis

• Solar-driven power-to-X potential of 30 countries is assessed. • An integrated approach combining MCDM and data-driven optimization is proposed. • The region is analyzed for its resources, economic and environmental factors. • Levelized cost of hydrogen and its derivatives in the region are evaluated. • Life cycle assessment is conducted to evaluate the environmental impact. The use of solar energy to produce key chemicals such as hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol is rapidly gaining momentum as part of the global transition toward cleaner fuel sources. Countries located near the equator, within the global sunbelt, hold significant potential for solar-driven Power-to-X (P-to-X) pathways. This comprehensive study employs advanced Geographic Information System spatial analysis and the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique to assess land suitability for solar-powered P-to-X production pathways, including hydrogen, ammonia, and methanol, across 30 countries (hereafter referred to as the ’macro-region’). The results indicate that water availability is the most critical constraint, rendering 57% of the land unsuitable. Overall, the AHP results reveal that only 3.8% of the entire macro-region is highly suitable, while 44.6% is moderately suitable for solar-driven hydrogen facilities. A two-stage data-driven predictive model is utilized to assess the hydrogen production potential and levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) and other derivatives for highly suitable areas in 2024 and 2050 under various cases. The results indicate that by 2050, the macro-region has the potential to achieve a hydrogen production of up to 1,590 Mt/y, while simultaneously avoiding approximately 16,589 Mt/y of CO 2 emissions if all highly suitable land is effectively utilized. By 2050, the LCOH is projected to decrease to between 2.56–4.17 $/kg, while the costs of green ammonia and methanol are anticipated to range from 0.56 to 0.79 $/kg and 0.67–0.93 $/kg, respectively. Although this study highlights the region’s remarkable potential for power-to-X technologies, effective deployment and distribution will depend on regional cooperation, robust infrastructure development, and strategic measures—such as seawater desalination—to overcome critical water scarcity constraints.